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China: The World’s Next Great Economic Crash

Posted by Raymond on February 14, 2010

From The Christian Science Monitor:

Has the global economy recovered? Forecasters say there will be an uptick this year of 2.4 percent, but they’re forgetting something. China could fail soon, and, if it does, the world’s most populous state will drag the rest of us down.

At this moment, a Chinese crisis seems like the last thing we should be worried about. After all, last year China overtook America as the planet’s largest car market and passed Germany as the biggest exporter.

On Thursday, Beijing announced that growth for the fourth quarter of 2009 was 10.7 percent and 8.7 percent for the entire year. Some analysts said the numbers were so strong that the country zoomed past Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy. Stock markets, property prices, you name it: Everything Chinese is soaring.

Dubai was once soaring, too. Global markets therefore, shuddered in November at the news that Dubai World, Dubai’s state investment firm and biggest corporate debtor, had asked for an extension on its $59 billion of obligations. Troubles in the booming emirate had been evident for some time, but stock investors were nonetheless caught unawares, apparently thinking a default would not occur.

They were obviously wrong. Global markets, for the time being, got past the shock, in part because the emirate is small. China, on the other hand, is not. Legendary short-seller James Chanos, who predicted the failures of Enron and Tyco, calls the country “Dubai times 1,000 – or worse.”

[Read more at The Christian Science Monitor]

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  • emperorreagan

    It only makes sense.

    China's rapid economic growth has followed the consumption in the US (and the exportation of manufacturing there).

    The US economy, with its decline in manufacturing, has been carried by multiple bubbles over the past couple of decades (tech, housing, etc.).

    The green bubble that Obama is trying to spark seems to be slow moving, if it ever comes about.

    So what's going to happen to an economy based largely on feeding off of foreign bubbles, once those bubbles are gone?

  • http://crisismaven.wordpress.com/ CrisisMaven

    Well, the misconception is IF China overtook anyone at all or if not many of thoseastonishing numbersare just made up: There will be much more hardship soon with a looming Chinese collapse bigger than the Soviet Union’s.

  • http://crisismaven.wordpress.com/ CrisisMaven

    Well, the misconception is IF China overtook anyone at all or if not many of thoseastonishing numbersare just made up: There will be much more hardship soon with a looming Chinese collapse bigger than the Soviet Union's.