If you want tomorrow to be different, make today different.
~~ George Gurdjieff, Essentuki, 1918

Attempts to create a predictive scientific model for humanitarian emergencies and wars have largely been defined by the 1960s 'social indicators' movement that sought accelerators and de-accelerators (Harff and Gurr, 1998: 569) and time-series analysis that gathered comparative data on historical patterns (Harff and Gurr, 1998: 573).

While analysts now recognise the existence of emergent 'deep conflict' more complex than resource or interest-based conflicts (Rothman and Olsen, 2001: 295), they are yet to integrate this with values systems research (Beck & Cowan, 1996: 298-299) or foresight methods (Slaughter, 1995). Computer database and information visualisation systems, such as the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research's KOSIMO, have created awareness that "the scientific study of political conflict needs a holistic approach that conceptionalizes periods of peace and nonviolent conflict as events, units, and objects that are methodologically equivalent to violent conflict and war." (Pfetsch and Rohloff, 2001: 381).

Gurdjieff's 'action research' and legacy are crucial for several reasons beyond the scope of the Work and Gurdjieff groups. His astrobiological model of warfare causality serves as a reminder that internal wars and political upheavals can be sparked by environmental problems and resource crises (Harff and Gurr, 1998: 556; Beck and Cowan, 1996: 52-56). Since crisis decision-making can "become even more closed and less attuned to political concerns" (Trumobre and Boyer, 2000: 693) as the "'violence begets violence'" pathology occurs (Trumobre and Boyer, 2000: 688), his self-striving Work has a utilitarian usage apart from any religious or spiritual connotations. The geopolitical crisis of the post-Cold War era is that "any organized group with the capacity and authority can commit mass murder" (Harff and Gurr, 1998: 569). Gurdjieff-inspired author John Shirley has already depicted one believable scenario (Shirley, 1999). Yet our response to this crisis may be fragmented (Slaughter, 1995: 52).

Gurdjieff realized that we could envisage the death of others, but not our own (Peters, 1974: 64). He based this conclusion on years of observation and examining neurophysiologist Vladimir Bekhterev's research into the brain and conditioned reflexes at Kars Military Academy in 1886 (Webb, 1980: 82). This inability created the abnormal forms of egoism that were the "cause of all evil in our common life." (Gurdjieff, 1981: 159). Gurdjieff's final message to humanity (Gurdjieff, 1950: 1183) is both a poignant passage and proposes an effective solution--the 'organ' of inner conscience:

The sole means now for the saving of beings of the planet Earth would be to implant again into their presences a new organ, an organ like kundabuffer, but this time of such properties that every one of those unfortunates during the process of existence should constantly sense and be cognizant of the inevitability of his own death as well as of the death of everyone upon whom his eyes or attention rests.

Appendix I: Psychobiographical Abstract

In an interview (November 1998), author and memeticist Aaron Lynch told me how he noted that students go through an identity-change during their second year (ranging from new sexual identities to political activism and religious exploration). For me, this was George Gurdjieff, whose writings I encountered in 1993 through Eric Tamm's biography Robert Fripp: From King Crimson to Guitar Craft (New York: Faber & Faber, 1991) and Peter Ouspensky's The Fourth Way (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd., 1957). I soon discovered that La Trobe University's Borchardt library had one of the most extensive collections of this tradition's literature. Writing this essay was a way to "close the loop" in a symbolic sense.

Over the next eight years I read most of the primary literature and secondary interpretations. I spent several months in a group run by Dr. Brian and Nina Earl, who had studied with Gurdjieff's pupil John Godolphin Bennett, exchanged letters and e-mails with Jacob Needleman and John Shirley, and spent an intensive 22-month period in the US-based Temple of Set. Gurdjieff's perspectives led to depth psychology sessions and training in media studies and values systems research.

During this same period, I was involved with social activism, ranging from animal rights and political prisoners to cultural censorship and youth suicide. I noted unhealthy self-identification and group dynamics in most of the activist and spiritual groups I had been affiliated with. The crises that were triggered served as self-initiations into aspects of the social wisdom that Gurdjieff had attempted to convey.

This essay was prompted by peace studies, a visit to New York City (20-26 September 2001) and also by the geopolitical fallout in October 2001. Gurdjieff had received training from Afghanistan monasteries and tekkes that might have been bombed by the US in reprisal against Osama bin Laden and the al-Quaeda network, so I felt moved to write something as a contribution. The Caucasus region, a haven for multicultural communities and polytheistic religion, is now the battleground for oil pipelines. In particular, Islam's positive cultural legacy, which I had encountered through writings by Gurdjieff, John Bennett, Henri Corbin, Idries Shah and Hassan Shusud, was obscured by newly inflamed hatreds and stereotypes. The political analysts who railed against bin Laden's militant Islam (seventh Century) seemed ignorant of Islam's Order system (fourteenth and fifteenth centuries), which had preserved Western culture and knowledge of higher mathematics.