Craig DiLouie is the author of Paranoia, a psychological thriller based on conspiracy theories and published in trade paperback by Salvo Press--available nationwide in bookstores, BarnesandNoble.com, Amazon.com and direct from the publisher. For more information, visit the Paranoia Web site. ©2001, Craig DiLouie. Permission to publish this article as a whole or in excerpts is granted on a non-exclusive, probono basis to all printed and electronic media, so long as it is not edited to substantially change its content and/or meaning.

Who Believes In Conspiracy Theories?

Most people do. According to polls, most Americans agree that the scenario posed by at least one conspiracy theory is very likely or somewhat likely. On June 25-29, 1997, a survey was conducted of 1,009 people nationwide, with participants from every state and the District of Columbia. Guido H. Stempel III, distinguished professor of the EW Scripps School of Journalism at Ohio University and Thomas Hargrove of the Scripps Howard News Service conducted the survey. The results have a 4% margin of error with a 95% confidence interval, meaning that the results are projectable to all American households 95 times out of 100 plus or minus 4 percentage points. At that time:

· More than half (51%) believe it is very likely or somewhat likely that government officials were "directly responsible for the assassination of President Kennedy."

· More than half (60%) believe is likely that military officials covered up the dangers of the Agent Orange chemical.

· Four-fifths (80%) believe it is likely that military officials are covering up information about American soldiers' exposure to nerve gas or germ warfare in the Gulf War.

· More than one-third (40%) believe it is likely that the FBI burned down the Branch Davidian compound in Waco, Texas.

· More than half (52%) believe it is likely that the CIA allowed drug dealers from Central America to sell crack cocaine to African-Americans in US inner cities.

· More than one-third believe it is likely the Navy shot down TWA Flight 800 either intentionally or accidentally.

Nearly half (47%) believe it is very likely or somewhat likely that "The U.S. Air Force is withholding proof of the existence of intelligent life from other planets."

Respondents were asked if the above situations were likely to some degree. The above responses included the "very likely" and "somewhat likely" answers. Note that believing that something is "somewhat likely" may be the admission of possibility, not a firm belief.

Was More Than One Person Involved In The JFK Assassination?

Most Americans say yes. A Gallup Poll was conducted March 26-28, 2001 with telephone interviews of a randomly selected sample of 1,024 adults aged 18 and older. The results are projectable to all American households with a 95% confidence and 3% margin of error. At that time, when asked, "Do you think that one man was responsible for the assassination of President Kennedy, or do you think that others were involved in a conspiracy?", with the possible answers "one man," "others involved" and "no opinion":

· Fourth-fifths (81%) responded that they believed that other people were involved in a conspiracy to assassinate President Kennedy, an all time-high.

Let's look at the historical results of this poll, which has been conducted periodically by Gallup since 1964:

One Man Others Involved No Opinion
March 2001 13% 81% 6%
November 1993 15% 75% 10%
February 1992* 10% 77% 13%
October 1983* 11% 74% 15%
December 1976** 11% 81% 9%
December 1966** 36% 50% 15%
November 1963** 29% 52% 19%

*Wording included, "one man, Lee Harvey Oswald . . ."

** Slight variations in wording (quoted verbatim from Gallup's Web site with thanks):

1963 - "Do you think that the man who shot President Kennedy acted on his own, or was some group or element also responsible?"

1966 - "Do you think that one man was responsible for the assassination of President Kennedy, or do you think others were involved?"

1976 - "Do you think that one man was responsible for the assassination of President Kennedy, or do you think others were involved?"

In the 1997 Scripps Howard News Service/Ohio University nationwide poll, the question concerned not more than one person, but government officials with direct involvement in the assassination of President Kennedy in 1963. The poll discovered:

More than half (51%) of Americans believe it is very likely or somewhat likely that government officials were "directly responsible for the assassination of President Kennedy."

Did The Government Manufacture AIDS and Make Drugs Available in Inner Cities to Attack Blacks?

A sizable number of people would agree with at least one of these accusations. In a 1990 poll, reported in the October 29, 1990 edition of The New York Times:

· Near one-third (29%) of black New Yorkers indicated belief that AIDS was "deliberately created in a laboratory in order to infect black people," versus one in twenty (5%) among white New Yorkers.

· More than half (60%) of black New Yorkers indicated belief that government "deliberately" made drugs available to poor black people, versus a little more than one in ten (12%) among white New Yorkers.

In another 1990 survey, reported in the November 2, 1995 edition of The Boston Globe:

· More than one-third (34%) of black churchgoers polled in five cities agreed "the AIDS virus was produced in a germ warfare laboratory."

The 1997 Scripps Howard News Service/Ohio University nationwide poll discovered:

· More than half (52%) of Americans believe it is likely that the CIA allowed drug dealers from Central America to sell crack cocaine to African-Americans in U.S. inner cities.

In the December 4, 1991 edition of The New York Post, comedian Bill Cosby said that AIDS was "started by human beings to get after certain people they don't like."

In a Benneton advertisement (see November 12, 1992 edition of Rolling Stone for an example), movie director Spike Lee said, "AIDS is a government-engineered disease."

Was The Apollo Lunar Landing Faked?

Most Americans say no. A Gallup Poll was conducted July 13-14, 1999 with telephone interviews of a randomly selected sample of 1,061 adults aged 18 and older. The results are projectable to all American households with a 95% confidence and 3% margin of error. When asked, "Thinking about the space exploration, do you think the government staged or faked the Apollo moon landing, or don't you feel that way?", with answers being, "Yes, staged," "No," and "No opinion":

· Less than one in ten (6%) believes that the landing was faked while nearly nine in ten (89%) do not believe that the lunar landing was faked or staged.

A Time/CNN/Yakelovich Partners, Inc. conducted a similar poll July 19-20, 1995 with virtually identical wording, and produced similar results:

Less than one in ten (6%) believes that the landing was faked while more than four-fifths (83%) do not believe that the lunar landing was faked or staged.