What Japan’s Disaster Tells Us About Peak Oil
Explosion and fire at Cosmo refinery following the March earthquake. Photo: Cranky5 (CC)
From the Guardian:
For large parts of eastern Japan that were not directly hit by the tsunami on 11 March 2011, including the nation’s capital, the current state of affairs feels very much like a dry-run for peak oil.
This is not to belittle the tragic loss of life and the dire situation facing many survivors left without homes and livelihoods.
Rather, the aim here is to reflect upon the post-disaster events and compare them with those normally associated with the worst-case scenarios for peak oil.
The earthquake and tsunami affected six of the 28 oil refineries in Japan and immediately petrol rationing was introduced with a maximum of 20 litres per car (in some instances as low as 5 litres).
On 14 March, the government allowed the oil industry to release 3 days’ worth of oil from stockpiles and on 22 March an additional 22…
The Psychology Of Oil
Lisa Margonelli of the New America Foundation Energy Policy discusses the psychology of oil and how it effects both our political policy and individual behavior. Did you know that oil pumps are consciously designed to look like ATMs?
The German Military Believes ‘Peak Oil’ May Bring About the End of Democracy and Free Markets
Hubbert peak oil plot. Chart: Hankwang (CC)
Der Spiegel reports that a German military think tank believes ‘peak oil’ may occur this year, and that it could cause the collapse of both democracies and free markets within 30 years.
The political and economic impacts of peak oil on Germany have now been studied for the first time in depth. The crude oil expert Steffen Bukold has evaluated and summarized the findings of the Bundeswehr study. Here is an overview of the central points:
- Oil will determine power: The Bundeswehr Transformation Center writes that oil will become one decisive factor in determining the new landscape of international relations: “The relative importance of the oil-producing nations in the international system is growing. These nations are using the advantages resulting from this to expand the scope of their domestic and foreign policies and establish themselves as a new or resurgent regional, or in some cases even global leading…
U.S. Military Warns Of Massive Oil Shortage In Five Years
Is this just a scare tactic, or is the military seeing things more accurately than the rest of our government? In contrast with rosier predictions by others — others such as the Department of Energy — a new Pentagon report paints an ominous picture of world-changing oil shortages just a few years away, the Guardian reports:
“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,” says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.
It adds: “While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and…
Richard Branson Predicts Peak Oil In 2015
As the owner of a major airline, Virgin’s Richard Branson must think about the prospect of peak oil more than most of us. Apparently he’s a believer, as reported in the Christian Science Monitor:
Long-accustomed to being dismissed as alarmists, the arguments of those warning of an impending peak oil crisis are now being bolstered by support from multi-billionaires like Richard Branson.
A major report funded by the Virgin Airlines owner and other British business leaders warned this week that the world is running out of oil and predicts shortages and price spikes as soon as 2015. A future of painful hikes in the cost of food, heating, and travel in a world unprepared for surging oil prices was forecast by the Industry Taskforce for Peak Oil and Energy Security.
“Don’t let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did,” wrote Mr. Branson and other business executives in a forward to the report…
