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	<title>Disinformation &#187; Stephen Dubner</title>
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		<title>Elizabeth Kolbert Dissects and Destroys SuperFreakonomics</title>
		<link>http://www.disinfo.com/2009/11/elizabeth-kolbert-dissects-and-destroys-superfreakonomics/</link>
		<comments>http://www.disinfo.com/2009/11/elizabeth-kolbert-dissects-and-destroys-superfreakonomics/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:35:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>majestic</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Climate Change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elizabeth Kolbert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Freakonomics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Dubner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Levitt]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.disinfo.com/?p=14233</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><img alt="" src="http://www.newyorker.com/images/2009/11/16/p233/091116_r19031_p233.jpg" title="“SuperFreakonomics” has some ideas for reëngineering the planet." class="alignright" width="233" height="233" />Elizabeth Kolbert thoroughly dissects and destroys <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0060889578?ie=UTF8&#38;tag=disinformation&#38;linkCode=as2&#38;camp=1789&#38;creative=390957&#38;creativeASIN=0060889578"><em>SuperFreakonomics</em></a> authors Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner&#8217;s thinking on global warming and climate change in a very astute <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/books/2009/11/16/091116crbo_books_kolbert">New Yorker</a> article. It&#8217;s long, but well worth the read. Here&#8217;s a particularly choice sample:</p>
<blockquote><p>Neither Levitt, an economist, nor Dubner, a journalist, has any training in climate science—or, for that matter, in science of any kind. It’s their contention that they don’t need it. The whole conceit behind “SuperFreakonomics” and, before that, “Freakonomics,” which sold some four million copies, is that a dispassionate, statistically minded thinker can find patterns and answers in the data that those who are emotionally invested in the material will have missed. (The subtitle of “Freakonomics,” published in 2005, is “A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything.”) In this way, Levitt and Dubner claim to have solved the mystery of why crime, after soaring in the nineteen-eighties, dropped in the&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img alt="" src="http://www.newyorker.com/images/2009/11/16/p233/091116_r19031_p233.jpg" title="“SuperFreakonomics” has some ideas for reëngineering the planet." class="alignright" width="233" height="233" />Elizabeth Kolbert thoroughly dissects and destroys <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0060889578?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=disinformation&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0060889578"><em>SuperFreakonomics</em></a> authors Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner&#8217;s thinking on global warming and climate change in a very astute <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/books/2009/11/16/091116crbo_books_kolbert">New Yorker</a> article. It&#8217;s long, but well worth the read. Here&#8217;s a particularly choice sample:</p>
<blockquote><p>Neither Levitt, an economist, nor Dubner, a journalist, has any training in climate science—or, for that matter, in science of any kind. It’s their contention that they don’t need it. The whole conceit behind “SuperFreakonomics” and, before that, “Freakonomics,” which sold some four million copies, is that a dispassionate, statistically minded thinker can find patterns and answers in the data that those who are emotionally invested in the material will have missed. (The subtitle of “Freakonomics,” published in 2005, is “A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything.”) In this way, Levitt and Dubner claim to have solved the mystery of why crime, after soaring in the nineteen-eighties, dropped in the nineteen-nineties. (The explanation, they say, is the legalization of abortion, some eighteen years earlier.) They also have proved—at least to their own satisfaction—that names like Ansley and Philippa will be popular for girls in the coming decade, that reading to your kids doesn’t matter, and that drunks should be encouraged to drive rather than walk.</p>
<p>Given their emphasis on cold, hard numbers, it’s noteworthy that Levitt and Dubner ignore what are, by now, whole libraries’ worth of data on global warming. Indeed, just about everything they have to say on the topic is, factually speaking, wrong. Among the many matters they misrepresent are: the significance of carbon emissions as a climate-forcing agent, the mechanics of climate modelling, the temperature record of the past decade, and the climate history of the past several hundred thousand years. Raymond T. Pierrehumbert is a climatologist who, like Levitt, teaches at the University of Chicago. In a particularly scathing critique, he composed an open letter to Levitt, which he posted on the blog RealClimate.</p>
<p>“The problem wasn’t necessarily that you talked to the wrong experts or talked to too few of them,” he observes. “The problem was that you failed to do the most elementary thinking.” Pierrehumbert carefully dissects one of the arguments that Levitt and Dubner seem to subscribe to—that solar cells, because they are dark, actually contribute to global warming—and shows it to be fallacious. “Really simple arithmetic, which you could not be bothered to do, would have been enough to tell you,” he writes, that this claim “is complete and utter nonsense.”</p>
<p>But what’s most troubling about “SuperFreakonomics” isn’t the authors’ many blunders; it’s the whole spirit of the enterprise. Though climate change is a grave problem, Levitt and Dubner treat it mainly as an opportunity to show how clever they are. Leaving aside the question of whether geoengineering, as it is known in scientific circles, is even possible—have you ever tried sending an eighteen-mile-long hose into the stratosphere?—their analysis is terrifyingly cavalier. A world whose atmosphere is loaded with carbon dioxide, on the one hand, and sulfur dioxide, on the other, would be a fundamentally different place from the earth as we know it. Among the many likely consequences of shooting SO2 above the clouds would be new regional weather patterns (after major volcanic eruptions, Asia and Africa have a nasty tendency to experience drought), ozone depletion, and increased acid rain. Meanwhile, as long as the concentration of atmospheric CO2 continued to rise, more and more sulfur dioxide would have to be pumped into the air to counteract it. The amount of direct sunlight reaching the earth would fall, even as the oceans became increasingly acidic. There are eminent scientists—among them the Nobel Prize-winning chemist Paul Crutzen—who argue that geoengineering should be seriously studied, but only with the understanding that it represents a risky, last-ditch attempt to avert catastrophe&#8230;</p></blockquote>
<p>[read the whole article in the <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/books/2009/11/16/091116crbo_books_kolbert">New Yorker</a>]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Freaked Out Over SuperFreakonomics</title>
		<link>http://www.disinfo.com/2009/10/freaked-out-over-superfreakonomics/</link>
		<comments>http://www.disinfo.com/2009/10/freaked-out-over-superfreakonomics/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 14:16:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>majestic</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Freakonomics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nathan Myhrvold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Dubner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Levitt]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.disinfo.com/?p=13186</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<iframe src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?lt1=_blank&#038;bc1=000000&#038;IS2=1&#038;bg1=FFFFFF&#038;fc1=000000&#038;lc1=0000FF&#038;t=disinformation&#038;o=1&#038;p=8&#038;l=as1&#038;m=amazon&#038;f=ifr&#038;md=10FE9736YVPPT7A0FBG2&#038;asins=0060889578" style="width:120px;height:240px;" scrolling="no" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" align=right frameborder="0"></iframe>Brett Stephen writing in the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704335904574495643459234318.html">Wall Street Journal</a>:
<blockquote>Suppose for a minute—which is about 59 seconds too long, but that's for another column—that global warming poses an imminent threat to the survival of our species. Suppose, too, that the best solution involves a helium balloon, several miles of garden hose and a harmless stream of sulfur dioxide being pumped into the upper atmosphere, all at a cost of a single F-22 fighter jet.

Good news, right? Maybe, but not if you're Al Gore or one of his little helpers.

The hose-in-the-sky approach to global warming is the brainchild of Intellectual Ventures, a Bellevue, Wash.-based firm founded by former Microsoft Chief Technology Officer Nathan Myhrvold. The basic idea is to engineer effects similar to those of the 1991 mega-eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, which spewed so much sulfuric ash into the stratosphere that it cooled the earth by about one degree Fahrenheit for a couple of years.

Could it work? Mr. Myhrvold and his associates think it might, and they're a smart bunch. Also smart are University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt and writer Stephen Dubner, whose delightful "SuperFreakonomics"—the sequel to their runaway 2005 bestseller "Freakonomics"—gives Myhrvold and Co. pride of place in their lengthy chapter on global warming. Not surprisingly, global warming fanatics are experiencing a Pinatubo-like eruption of their own...</blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><iframe src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?lt1=_blank&#038;bc1=000000&#038;IS2=1&#038;bg1=FFFFFF&#038;fc1=000000&#038;lc1=0000FF&#038;t=disinformation&#038;o=1&#038;p=8&#038;l=as1&#038;m=amazon&#038;f=ifr&#038;md=10FE9736YVPPT7A0FBG2&#038;asins=0060889578" style="width:120px;height:240px;" scrolling="no" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" align=right frameborder="0"></iframe>Brett Stephen writing in the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704335904574495643459234318.html">Wall Street Journal</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Suppose for a minute—which is about 59 seconds too long, but that&#8217;s for another column—that global warming poses an imminent threat to the survival of our species. Suppose, too, that the best solution involves a helium balloon, several miles of garden hose and a harmless stream of sulfur dioxide being pumped into the upper atmosphere, all at a cost of a single F-22 fighter jet.</p>
<p>Good news, right? Maybe, but not if you&#8217;re Al Gore or one of his little helpers.</p>
<p>The hose-in-the-sky approach to global warming is the brainchild of Intellectual Ventures, a Bellevue, Wash.-based firm founded by former Microsoft Chief Technology Officer Nathan Myhrvold. The basic idea is to engineer effects similar to those of the 1991 mega-eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, which spewed so much sulfuric ash into the stratosphere that it cooled the earth by about one degree Fahrenheit for a couple of years.</p>
<p>Could it work? Mr. Myhrvold and his associates think it might, and they&#8217;re a smart bunch. Also smart are University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt and writer Stephen Dubner, whose delightful &#8220;SuperFreakonomics&#8221;—the sequel to their runaway 2005 bestseller &#8220;Freakonomics&#8221;—gives Myhrvold and Co. pride of place in their lengthy chapter on global warming. Not surprisingly, global warming fanatics are experiencing a Pinatubo-like eruption of their own.</p>
<p>Mr. Gore, for instance, tells Messrs. Levitt and Dubner that the stratospheric sulfur solution is &#8220;nuts.&#8221; Former Clinton administration official Joe Romm, who edits the Climate Progress blog, accuses the authors of &#8220;[pushing] global cooling myths&#8221; and &#8220;sheer illogic.&#8221; The Union of Concerned Scientists faults the book for its &#8220;faulty statistics.&#8221; Never to be outdone, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman scores &#8220;SuperFreakonomics&#8221; for &#8220;grossly [misrepresenting] other peoples&#8217; research, in both climate science and economics.&#8221;</p>
<p>In fact, Messrs. Levitt and Dubner show every sign of being careful researchers, going so far as to send chapter drafts to their interviewees for comment prior to publication. Nor are they global warming &#8220;deniers,&#8221; insofar as they acknowledge that temperatures have risen by 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit over the past century.</p>
<p>But when it comes to the religion of global warming—the First Commandment of which is Thou Shalt Not Call It A Religion—Messrs. Levitt and Dubner are grievous sinners&#8230;</p></blockquote>
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